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Post by Derrick - Senators on Aug 23, 2019 16:36:56 GMT -5
Round 110.) Calgary Flames - Erik Gustafsson Gustafsson scored 60 total points last season as a defenseman, but was a point-per-game player after the All-Star break. He secured the QB spot on PP1 last season and nothing has changed in Chicago. 100% should have been the first defenseman off the board and picking him up at #10 is a steal.
Round 224.) Vancouver Canucks - Josh Anderson Sneaky good player that contributes to all categories in our format. Anderson finished as the 38th most valuable player according to Yahoo rankings this past season and with Panarin taking his services to New York, Anderson might see an increase in playing time.
Round 329.) New Jersey Devils - Shayne Gostisbehere Steal of the draft. This kid is just now entering his prime and is only one season removed from 65 points, 33 power-play points, and 221 shots on goal as a defenseman. Come on meow.
Round 438.) Ottawa Senators - Petr Mrazek Is Mrazek an all-world talent? Not even close. However, he does play behind one the league's best defensive cores and that has been a recipe for success for fantasy goalies for over two decades now. Dwayne Roloson, Niklas Backstrom, Manny Fernandez, Tim Thomas anybody? With McElhinney gone and Reimer rumored to be released, Mrazek should see the bulk of the starts in Carolina and come close to repeating last season's numbers.
Round 556.) San Jose Sharks - Tomas Tatar 60 point player in Round 5? Sure, why not. If you insist.
Round 663.) Calgary Flames - Kyle Palmieri 30 goal scorer in Round 6? Sure, why not. If you insist. A re-tooled New Jersey Devils team should mean a significant uptick in powerplay points and goals scored.
Round 774.) Washington Capitals - Gustav Nyquist 60 point player in Round 7?! Maybe. There are some concerns with Nyquist going to a different team with an impotent offense. His motivation has also been questioned when not in a contract year but surely he is a better pick than corpses like Kovalchuk and Simmonds who were both selected before Nyquist.
Round 894.) Anaheim Ducks - Dustin Brown Coming off seasons of 61 points and 51 points, Brown has been a solid contributor to all categories in our format for years. This is a low risk - high reward pick. Why anyone would select a handful of prospects before Brown is beyond me. Expect the Kings to have a nice bounce-back season this year.
Round 9100.) Detroit Red Wings - Corey Perry What year is this? While Perry might not be the dominant force he once was, he still has potential to contribute to a number of different categories in a top 6 role with his new team. The Stars aren't paying him 3.25 million dollars to sit on the bench.
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Post by Nos - Sharks on Aug 24, 2019 2:19:24 GMT -5
Coooool, content! Love it...even if it's so incorrect I don't know where to begin! Except from the start, here we gooooo! Round 110.) Calgary Flames - Erik GustafssonGustafsson scored 60 total points last season as a defenseman, but was a point-per-game player after the All-Star break. He secured the QB spot on PP1 last season and nothing has changed in Chicago. 100% should have been the first defenseman off the board and picking him up at #10 is a steal. Erik Gustafsson? Really? This guy has always had weak to average career numbers from Sweden to the AHL to International play. He doesn't have the pedigree to be considered a top choice or player and cannot be expected to repeat those numbers ever again in his life. He has weak to average peripheral numbers. He basically came out of nowhere to land in a cushy position with the 8th best offense in the league. He's 27 years old. There's nothing to stop Duncan Keith from regaining that spot (the team has way more committed to him) or for a younger guy like Boqvist to come in and take what is rightfully his, he actually has the pedigree and skill to contribute meaningfully and has a right handed shot which will be key on that power play in a few seasons. Erik Gustafsson will be nobody in a few seasons. He will be lucky to still be in the Top 4 of a team with marginal offensive usage. Why do you think rookies/newer players typically are prone to having a sophomore slump? It's because players/teams/strategies are found out and coaching staffs adjust to something new. Only true talent will be able to overcome that and either keep stride or improve but you can expect a down year from Gustafsson this upcoming season. Awful pick, shows a misunderstanding of talent. Jacob Trouba was the best defenseman available, from pedigree and skill to his peripheral numbers to his youth to being on a team with a stunning amount of top end skill both proven and rookie to him finally being utilized correctly for the first time in his career in NYC. Watch out! Then it was Keith Yandle. No reason to put Gustafsson above these two. Matt Dumba is superior. Shea Weber. Shayne Gostisbehere. Etc. Lots of potential with other defensemen too that were picked much later but will show a greater return on investment. Round 438.) Ottawa Senators - Petr MrazekIs Mrazek an all-world talent? Not even close. However, he does play behind one the league's best defensive cores and that has been a recipe for success for fantasy goalies for over two decades now. Dwayne Roloson, Niklas Backstrom, Manny Fernandez, Tim Thomas anybody? With McElhinney gone and Reimer rumored to be released, Mrazek should see the bulk of the starts in Carolina and come close to repeating last season's numbers. Mrazek might come close to repeating last season's numbers but he only had 20 quality starts over 40 games (.901 SV% or higher), a 50/50 goalie, he cannot be trusted whatsoever and for that reason he is not worth rostering on a team looking to make the playoffs and is a far cry from the best player chosen in the 4th Round. There is a reason Carolina didn't commit to him in any meaningful way, Carolina has bigger plans, he is a stop gap goalie until the real talent (Nedeljkovic & Kochetkov) is ready. Round 774.) Washington Capitals - Gustav Nyquist60 point player in Round 7?! Maybe. There are some concerns with Nyquist going to a different team with an impotent offense. His motivation has also been questioned when not in a contract year but surely he is a better pick than corpses like Kovalchuk and Simmonds who were both selected before Nyquist. Tortorella will hate this player. He has dismal peripheral numbers. Not sure how anyone could prefer this player over Andrew Shaw, perhaps the true steal of the draft, who has similar offensive output and impeccable peripheral numbers. Not to mention he's likely to be playing with, and protecting, Chicago's youthful second line with DeBrincat & Strome. That'll be such a potent and well balanced line, super excited to see what Chicago can do with improved defensive depth up front and on the back end as well as adding a Vezina caliber goaltending talent! Round 894.) Anaheim Ducks - Dustin BrownComing off seasons of 61 points and 51 points, Brown has been a solid contributor to all categories in our format for years. This is a low risk - high reward pick. Why anyone would select a handful of prospects before Brown is beyond me. Expect the Kings to have a nice bounce-back season this year. Expect the Kings to have a nice bounce-back season?!? Whyyyyy?? What is this based on?!? They did absolutely fuck all to improve. What did they do? For real? Why would you expect anything different? Look at their defense! Godawful. The team's core is deathly old. Top to bottom shit. Nobody on the Kings can be trusted. The team is garbage, look for them to finish bottom 5 yet again. Every single prospect chosen in the draft is superior to rostering Dustin Brown. Or Ilya Kovalchuk. Or Jeff Carter. Or Nikolai Prokhorkin. I fail to see why anyone would hitch their wagon to the Los Angeles Kings at this time. This isn't 10 years ago. This is the 2019-2020 season baby! What, you think Todd McLellan can whip those guys into shape? Naw man, naw. The Kings had the 30th ranked offense in the league and the 22nd ranked defense. Without any meaningful changes you can expect those ranks to remain the same or become worse as that old core ages another year. Round 9100.) Detroit Red Wings - Corey PerryWhat year is this? While Perry might not be the dominant force he once was, he still has potential to contribute to a number of different categories in a top 6 role with his new team. The Stars aren't paying him 3.25 million dollars to sit on the bench. Corey Perry signed a $1.5 million dollar contract with the Stars. That is Bottom 6 money. Have you seen their Top 6? There is no room for Corey Perry in their Top 6. He is, at best, an injury fill in for Top 6 time. Perry is old. Perry doesn't have it anymore. Name a player that was bought out and who then contributed meaningful offensive numbers in relation to fantasy? Not worth rostering off the hop, he is a player you might keep an eye on at best but not a player you roster heading into the season. How do you choose a player like that over someone like Ryan Strome anyway? Youth, pedigree, peripherals, contract year, 22 points in his last 28 games with NYR after learning the system and becoming familiar with teammates, was hitting his stride, will center the second line and play with either Kakko or Kravtsov as well as Kreider or Panarin. Corey Perry. Mind boggling choices indeed! Something very habitual and familiar about your choices Derr. Good effort though! I might make my best picks of each round choices when I have some more time, or might even do a worst picks of each round variance!
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Post by Derrick - Senators on Aug 24, 2019 10:12:47 GMT -5
Coooool, content! Love it...even if it's so incorrect I don't know where to begin! Except from the start, here we gooooo! Erik Gustafsson? Really? This guy has always had weak to average career numbers from Sweden to the AHL to International play. He doesn't have the pedigree to be considered a top choice or player and cannot be expected to repeat those numbers ever again in his life. He has weak to average peripheral numbers. He basically came out of nowhere to land in a cushy position with the 8th best offense in the league. He's 27 years old. There's nothing to stop Duncan Keith from regaining that spot (the team has way more committed to him) or for a younger guy like Boqvist to come in and take what is rightfully his, he actually has the pedigree and skill to contribute meaningfully and has a right handed shot which will be key on that power play in a few seasons. Erik Gustafsson will be nobody in a few seasons. He will be lucky to still be in the Top 4 of a team with marginal offensive usage. Why do you think rookies/newer players typically are prone to having a sophomore slump? It's because players/teams/strategies are found out and coaching staffs adjust to something new. Only true talent will be able to overcome that and either keep stride or improve but you can expect a down year from Gustafsson this upcoming season. Awful pick, shows a misunderstanding of talent. Jacob Trouba was the best defenseman available, from pedigree and skill to his peripheral numbers to his youth to being on a team with a stunning amount of top end skill both proven and rookie to him finally being utilized correctly for the first time in his career in NYC. Watch out! Then it was Keith Yandle. No reason to put Gustafsson above these two. Matt Dumba is superior. Shea Weber. Shayne Gostisbehere. Etc. Lots of potential with other defensemen too that were picked much later but will show a greater return on investment. Gustafsson isn't "young," he is a "late-bloomer," so a sophomore slump isn't really relevant. Plus we aren't discussing what will or won't be in a couple seasons, we are discussing this upcoming season. And that is that Gustafsson is the PP1 QB. Suggesting Keith regains that spot at age 36 after showing signs of declining year after year is absolutely ridiculous. Gustafsson had more powerplay points last year in an abbreviated season than Duncan Keith has had in the past two full seasons COMBINED and more than Duncan Keith has had in a single season since the 2013-2014 season. You are either playing devil's advocate or didn't watch a single Blackhawks game all year. Gustafsson is a dynamic offensive player with excellent skating and one of the best PP QB's in the league. The more Mrazek plays the better he is. As the "starter" post all-star break, Mrazek had 6 shutouts in the final 28 games. Additionally, in 16 of those final 28 games Mrazek only allowed 2 goals or less. Isn't it interesting how statistics can be presented differently to tell two wildly different stories? Shaw had a career year and is likely to regress. He doesn't contribute on the powerplay, or to short-handed points, or to game-winning goals, averages less than 2 shots on goal per game on his career, and has scored 20 or more goals (20) exactly once ever, 6 years ago. They did the most important thing they could have possibly done to improve and that was getting rid of Willie Desjardins as the head coach. Their players are fine, they just refused to play for such a terrible coach who publicly berated players and inexplicably scratched star players all season long. Excluding Dustin Brown, every single star player on the Kings had the worst season of their entire careers and Kopitar went from being a 90 point player to a 60 point player between his 30 year old and 31 year old seasons as a playmaking center. They are one season removed from 98 points and a playoff appearance! Are you suggesting EVERY single player on the team fell off at EXACTLY the same point in their careers? Or is it more likely there was a head coach/locker room issue? Wrong. If Perry plays 50 games he makes 2.75 million. If the Stars make the playoffs he is making 3 million dollars guaranteed. Another 225,000 if they win the cup. There is no reason to believe either of the first two things won't happen. Barring some freak injury that requires surgery like this past season, Perry has only played less than 50 games once in his 14 year career. Additioanlly, the Stars made the playoffs last season and the general consensus is that they have only gotten better. I think you are missing the intent behind this. Nobody is arguing Corey Perry is a point-per-game player. However, he is excellent value in the 8th round of the Waiver Draft, especially since he will be a more solid contributor to a fantasy team than 10-15 forwards selected ahead of him. Yep. Same "habitual mind-bogging familiar choices" that have won me back-to-back championships and the most championships in the league all-time. I guess I just keep getting lucky.
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Post by Derrick - Senators on Aug 24, 2019 15:01:52 GMT -5
Not sure how anyone could prefer this player over Andrew Shaw, perhaps the true steal of the draft, who has similar offensive output and impeccable peripheral numbers. Not to mention he's likely to be playing with, and protecting, Chicago's youthful second line with DeBrincat & Strome. That'll be such a potent and well balanced line, super excited to see what Chicago can do with improved defensive depth up front and on the back end as well as adding a Vezina caliber goaltending talent! Erik Gustafsson? Really? This guy has always had weak to average career numbers from Sweden to the AHL to International play. He doesn't have the pedigree to be considered a top choice or player and cannot be expected to repeat those numbers ever again in his life. So wait. When we are discussing YOUR player, a third line/maybe second line/2nd PP unit guy if he is lucky, Chicago is "youthful" and "potent" which will reflect positively on YOUR players performance and total points on the season, but when discussing the #1 D on the #1 PP on the same team in Gustafsson who is not your player, these same metrics don't apply? Hmmmmm. Makes sense, I guess. Solid analysis. No bias here at all.
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Post by Nos - Sharks on Aug 25, 2019 7:23:01 GMT -5
Gustafsson isn't "young," he is a "late-bloomer," so a sophomore slump isn't really relevant. Plus we aren't discussing what will or won't be in a couple seasons, we are discussing this upcoming season. And that is that Gustafsson is the PP1 QB. Suggesting Keith regains that spot at age 36 after showing signs of declining year after year is absolutely ridiculous. Gustafsson had more powerplay points last year in an abbreviated season than Duncan Keith has had in the past two full seasons COMBINED and more than Duncan Keith has had in a single season since the 2013-2014 season. You are either playing devil's advocate or didn't watch a single Blackhawks game all year. Gustafsson is a dynamic offensive player with excellent skating and one of the best PP QB's in the league. How is a sophomore slump not relevant? I never said he was 'young', rather I insinuated that he's fairly old for a guy to perform at that level from out of nowhere with zero history to back up this anomaly season. My point was, players/teams/strategies are found out and coaching staffs adjust to something new. This is the reason for a sophomore slump or for strategies that won't work as effectively once adjustments are made. This is the first time this player has done anything meaningful in his entire career and you can count on opposing coaching staffs taking notice of how this was achieved. You can expect him to regress for this reason alone because if he were able to overcome this he would have shown greater ability and production in the past. He isn't a special talent, he has no pedigree, that is Adam Boqvist's PP as soon as this season, Duncan Keith is a Blackhawks legend. Keith hasn't really been 'regressing', he was being used differently last season, he's fairly consistent, eats minutes, gets points (has scored 40+ points in 10 of the last 11 seasons, one season was abbreviated where he scored at a 47+ point pace), has great +/- numbers, the reason he didn't have those PP numbers last season was because his usage declined, had he played the PP he would be the one with 60 points and Gustafsson would be around where he should be pegged as a 30-35 point defenseman. Respectable but not game breaking. What Keith gave up in PPP he made up for in PIM. That's even if Gustafsson gets the same usage as he did last season (he won't), why? Well, take a look at the Blackhawks team build, contracts and cap space. They brought in two substantial defensemen in Calvin de Haan ($4,550,000 for 3 seasons) & Olli Maatta ($4,083,333 for 3 seasons). Is that a move by a team expecting to re-sign Erik Gustafsson? Or a move by a team confident in his abilities? Or is it more likely they see what the future holds at that position (Adam Boqvist) who will give them elite production as well as cap relief for 3 seasons? Duncan Keith is signed for 4 more seasons at $5,538,462 with a no-movement clause. Brent Seabrook is signed for 5 more seasons at $6,875,000 with a no-movement clause. Connor Murphy is signed for 3 more seasons at $3,850,000. The Blackhawks defense is jam packed with talent and contracts. The Blackhawks have $19,703,205 in cap space for the 2020-2021 season with key players left to sign including new contracts for Alex Debrincat, Dylan Strome, Dominik Kubalik, Brendan Perlini, Drake Caggiula, they also need to sign 2 goalies and you have to expect that to cost at least $7.5 million for both (they currently have $11 million committed to goaltending), as well as other considerations having to do with their prospect pool. Where is the money gonna come from to re-sign Gustafsson? Things will be hard enough to get done without him. He could be a trading piece to some sucker team. I watched a ton of Blackhawks games last season, my Dad's favorite team! I watch a ton of hockey regardless of teams, whatever I can watch, I do. I have a great eye for talent (I could be a scout!) but I feel like I have a greater understanding of the business aspect of the game and how you can apply it to predicting future moves and directions teams go in including line construction and player usage. I really don't see where you get off claiming Erik Gustafsson to be one of the best PP QB's in the league after one season of success with zero history to support and corroborate this production. The more Mrazek plays the better he is. As the "starter" post all-star break, Mrazek had 6 shutouts in the final 28 games. Additionally, in 16 of those final 28 games Mrazek only allowed 2 goals or less. Isn't it interesting how statistics can be presented differently to tell two wildly different stories? The statistics you're utilizing in support of Mrazek are largely team statistics. They're also incorrect and really support what I'm claiming. You can't count playoff numbers, playoffs are a different beast and don't factor into our league. Even if you did count the playoffs Mrazek only had 5 quality starts over 11 games and 5 games out of 11 where he allowed 2 or fewer goals against. He had abysmal playoff numbers, 2.73 GAA & .894 SV%. 50/50 goalie. Mrazek allowed 2 goals or fewer in 14 of his last 28 regular season games, half the games, 50/50 goalie. Mrazek had 4 shutouts over this period of time and not 6. Mrazek had 16 quality starts over his final 28 games, 50/50. Can't be trusted...you'll see. Shaw had a career year and is likely to regress. He doesn't contribute on the powerplay, or to short-handed points, or to game-winning goals, averages less than 2 shots on goal per game on his career, and has scored 20 or more goals (20) exactly once ever, 6 years ago. Do you have a legit reason why you believe he's likely to regress? He will play 2nd PP. He doesn't contribute to SHP or GWG? Well, he contributes to +/- and PIM. He also scored 3 GWG, pretty solid. So, you use smaller sample sizes to pump your opinions and players (Gustafsson's 1 anomaly year & Mrazek's 'solid?' end of the year play) but then cast a wide net over Shaw's career to discredit him moving forward? Post-injury, Shaw came back to Montreal to score 23 points over the last 27 games, was a +11, 33 PIM & 57 shots. Not too shabby, in fact he was one of the best fantasy multi-cat producers available in the league. Shaw will be playing with superior players in Chicago and has history there. It'll be fun to watch! They did the most important thing they could have possibly done to improve and that was getting rid of Willie Desjardins as the head coach. Their players are fine, they just refused to play for such a terrible coach who publicly berated players and inexplicably scratched star players all season long. Excluding Dustin Brown, every single star player on the Kings had the worst season of their entire careers and Kopitar went from being a 90 point player to a 60 point player between his 30 year old and 31 year old seasons as a playmaking center. They are one season removed from 98 points and a playoff appearance! Are you suggesting EVERY single player on the team fell off at EXACTLY the same point in their careers? Or is it more likely there was a head coach/locker room issue? Willie Desjardins does fucking SUCK, he should never get another job again, but that doesn't mean that was the only problem. Jeff Carter hasn't been a relevant center for a long while now and he's getting up there in age, the wheels are starting to come off and it's been noticeable and was expected. Kovalchuk is even older and showed nothing impressive in his return. Weren't you literally just discrediting Duncan Keith, a defenseman, who out pointed both of these forwards with zero PP usage? If you really want to analyze what the Kings can contribute let's go ahead and go back another season and use the past 3 seasons as a barometer, typical in fantasy metrics, average it out, a couple of pre-Desjardins seasons... 2018-2019: Standings: 30th, Offense: 30th, Defense: 22nd 2017-2018: Standings: 12th, Offense: 17th, Defense: 1st 2016-2017: Standings: 22nd, Offense: 25th, Defense: 6th Average: Standings: 21.33st, Offense: 24th, Defense: 9.67th So...yeah, not a playoff team, not a team that can contribute much offensively either. No reason to expect any meaningful increases. Defense is shockingly solid in the two seasons prior, mostly due to better goaltending and Doughty. If you look at that awful current defense I don't know how they're gonna ever compete with any NHL team. Who are those guys?!? Absolute trash, scary bad. Wrong. If Perry plays 50 games he makes 2.75 million. If the Stars make the playoffs he is making 3 million dollars guaranteed. Another 225,000 if they win the cup. There is no reason to believe either of the first two things won't happen. Barring some freak injury that requires surgery like this past season, Perry has only played less than 50 games once in his 14 year career. Additioanlly, the Stars made the playoffs last season and the general consensus is that they have only gotten better. I think you are missing the intent behind this. Nobody is arguing Corey Perry is a point-per-game player. However, he is excellent value in the 8th round of the Waiver Draft, especially since he will be a more solid contributor to a fantasy team than 10-15 forwards selected ahead of him. Wrong? What? That is what he signed for, $1.5 million. That's his cap hit. Bonuses don't factor into how a player is viewed within an organization or telling of his line expectations. If anything this is added incentive for the Stars to healthy scratch and sit Corey Perry, it's like a perform like we expect you to in order to help our team or sit and watch clause. If you were the coach of the Stars who would you sit in favor of Corey Perry in that Top 6? Bonuses are also applied to contracts because you're allowed to go over the cap with them by a certain percentage and/or defer the cap hit to the following season. It's a 1-year contract, basically a tryout contract. What I'm saying is Corey Perry is not worth rostering at all at this time and therefore cannot be considered 'excellent value' as a pick in any round. There are way better choices for that round. Plenty of those prospects drafted that you're dismissing were great pickups and will be much better value than Corey Perry. Yep. Same "habitual mind-bogging familiar choices" that have won me back-to-back championships and the most championships in the league all-time. I guess I just keep getting lucky. How many times does it have to be said? Ties don't count. Cheater seasons don't count. I'm not impressed. So wait. When we are discussing YOUR player, a third line/maybe second line/2nd PP unit guy if he is lucky, Chicago is "youthful" and "potent" which will reflect positively on YOUR players performance and total points on the season, but when discussing the #1 D on the #1 PP on the same team in Gustafsson who is not your player, these same metrics don't apply? Hmmmmm. Makes sense, I guess. Solid analysis. No bias here at all. Don't get me wrong, Gustafsson will leech his production just fine from a very youthful and potent Chicago Blackhawks lineup, if he's utilized. What I'm saying is he will not repeat last season's totals ever again in his life, coaching staffs will adjust and be aware of this player and Chicago will not utilize this player like you expect them to. For all we know Chicago could choose to shelter his minutes in his contract year to suppress his numbers in an attempt to re-sign him for a bargain (almost impossible after this past season though) but what's more likely to happen is he'll be traded to some sucker team. I base this off of how their defense and contracts are structured and with the understanding that Adam Boqvist is on the horizon, he will take that spot away from Gustafsson and perform way better than he could ever dream of performing. When it comes down to it, all of the rounds I criticized you for, it was because I saw obvious better choices available. It's not that certain players weren't worth having (some weren't worth having) but rather that there were better, obvious, players to choose from with greater value.
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Post by Derrick - Senators on Aug 25, 2019 10:15:23 GMT -5
Duncan Keith is a Blackhawks legend. Had he played the PP he would be the one with 60 points and Gustafsson would be around where he should be pegged as a 30-35 point defenseman. Respectable but not game breaking. What Keith gave up in PPP he made up for in PIM. “Had a player done this” or “had a player been used this way” is applicable to almost every single player in the NHL. Had Jesse Schultz been given top-line minutes he would have been a 60-point player. Had Marian Gaborik been healthy every season he would have scored 60 goals multiple times. Etc etc etc. The NHL is a collection of the best players in the world and under normal circumstances, the main thing that separates a 40-point player from a 70-point player is opportunity and usage. How players are used is typically determined by results or the perceived results a player can provide by the coaching staff. If Gustafsson was deployed the way he was deployed it was because the coaches believed him to be the superior player on the power play. Nothing has changed. Keith is a year older and Gustafsson is a year more experienced. There is absolutely nothing to suggest a change in the deployment of these two players moving forward. Do you have a legit reason why you believe he's likely to regress? So, you use smaller sample sizes to pump your opinions and players (Gustafsson's 1 anomaly year & Mrazek's 'solid?' end of the year play) but then cast a wide net over Shaw's career to discredit him moving forward? Post-injury, Shaw came back to Montreal to score 23 points over the last 27 games, was a +11, 33 PIM & 57 shots. Not too shabby, in fact he was one of the best fantasy multi-cat producers available in the league. Shaw will be playing with superior players in Chicago and has history there. It'll be fun to watch! The small sample size you use to overvalue Shaw is the exact same sample size I used to project a regression. Over the final 15 games, the entire Canadians team overachieved because they were pushing hard to make the playoffs. This is a pace that cannot realistically be maintained over an 82 game season. Shaw had 14 points in the final 15 games playing 2-3 minutes more per game than his season average. There is absolutely zero chance Shaw sees 18-19 minutes a game in Chicago. Willie Desjardins does fucking SUCK, he should never get another job again, but that doesn't mean that was the only problem. Jeff Carter hasn't been a relevant center for a long while now and he's getting up there in age, the wheels are starting to come off and it's been noticeable and was expected. Kovalchuk is even older and showed nothing impressive in his return. Weren't you literally just discrediting Duncan Keith, a defenseman, who out pointed both of these forwards with zero PP usage? If you really want to analyze what the Kings can contribute let's go ahead and go back another season and use the past 3 seasons as a barometer, typical in fantasy metrics, average it out, a couple of pre-Desjardins seasons... 2018-2019: Standings: 30th, Offense: 30th, Defense: 22nd 2017-2018: Standings: 12th, Offense: 17th, Defense: 1st 2016-2017: Standings: 22nd, Offense: 25th, Defense: 6th Average: Standings: 21.33st, Offense: 24th, Defense: 9.67th Team statistics are not reflective of individual performance. The Kings have not traditionally been a high scoring team, but the team statistics are heavily skewed because the bottom 6 players contribute next to nothing in terms of offense. A disproportionate amount of points that are scored by the Kings come from the top 6. The top 6 as it stands now is tentatively Kopitar, Brown, Kovalchuk, Carter, Toffoli, and Iafallo/Prokhorkin. Looking at recent individual performances as opposed to team statistics would be a more honest depiction. Let me know if you spot the anomaly. Jeff Carter 2018-2019: 33pts/76gp 2017-2018: 22pts/27gp 2016-2017: 66pts/82gp 2015-2016: 62pts/77gp Ilya Kovalchuk 2018-2019: 34pts/64gp 2017-2018: 63pts/53gp 2016-2017: 78pts/60gp 2015-2016: 49pts/50gp Anze Kopitar
2018-2019: 60pts/81gp 2017-2018: 92pts/82gp 2016-2017: 52pts/76gp 2015-2016: 74pts/81gp Jonathan Quick 2018-2019: 3.38/.888 2017-2018: 2.40/.921 2016-2017: 2.26/.917 2015-2016: 2.22/.918
What I'm saying is Corey Perry is not worth rostering at all at this time and therefore cannot be considered 'excellent value' as a pick in any round. There are way better choices for that round. Plenty of those prospects drafted that you're dismissing were great pickups and will be much better value than Corey Perry. This is not accurate. Not a single prospect picked around Corey Perry will play in the NHL this season. Therefore, they are worthless in the short-term. There is a season to play, and more than half of the league should be focused on realistically competing for the championship, something Corey Perry can possibly help achieve. (Adam Boqvist) who will give them elite production as well as cap relief for 3 seasons? that is Adam Boqvist's PP as soon as this season or for a younger guy like Boqvist to come in and take what is rightfully his and with the understanding that Adam Boqvist is on the horizon I think I speak for everybody when I say this. If we have to hear you say Adam Boqvist's name one more time, someone is being sent to your house to punch you in the face.
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Post by Daniel - Canucks on Aug 28, 2019 19:49:49 GMT -5
The best story of the 2019 Waiver Draft goes to the Vancouver Canucks for regaining Phillie's own defensive phenom Ivan Provorov and adding future 1st Overall Pick Alexis Lafrenière in a parlay for free! To Maple Leafs: Ivan Provorov To Canucks: 2019 1st Round Entry Pick I accept. To Washington: 2019 1st Round Entry Pick (TOR) To Vancouver: 2020 1st Round Entry Pick I accept.
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Post by Nos - Sharks on Aug 29, 2019 2:14:16 GMT -5
“Had a player done this” or “had a player been used this way” is applicable to almost every single player in the NHL. Had Jesse Schultz been given top-line minutes he would have been a 60-point player. Had Marian Gaborik been healthy every season he would have scored 60 goals multiple times. Etc etc etc. The NHL is a collection of the best players in the world and under normal circumstances, the main thing that separates a 40-point player from a 70-point player is opportunity and usage. How players are used is typically determined by results or the perceived results a player can provide by the coaching staff. If Gustafsson was deployed the way he was deployed it was because the coaches believed him to be the superior player on the power play. Nothing has changed. Keith is a year older and Gustafsson is a year more experienced. There is absolutely nothing to suggest a change in the deployment of these two players moving forward. I'm saying Duncan Keith hasn't 'regressed' like you suggest, rather he was utilized differently last season. If the coaching staff were to choose to utilize him on the PP again he could handle it and produce without any decline. There are numerous reasons why a coaching staff would choose to utilize Gustafsson on the PP over Keith. One reason is that Gustafsson wasn't embarrassing himself on the PP and could handle being useful there, eating minutes. Another reason could be that Duncan Keith was superior at even strength and in the defensive zone, those minutes were prime to be eaten with a team spiraling out of control. The Chicago Blackhawks changed coach's mid-season and had a hard time with the initial adjustment after becoming less effective under the legendary Joel Quenneville era. Plenty has been suggested to a change in deployment of these players moving forward including contract term, money committed, contract stipulations (no-movement) and future positional expectations. Duncan Keith has a history of success as a defenseman and as a Chicago Blackhawk with 3 Cups, hasn't faltered in over a decade and has contract term and security that Erik Gustafsson doesn't have. Where is the money gonna come from? Analyze the team's contract, term, committed salary, future considerations and cap space history. What do you see? Anything? I'm not convinced by 1 good year, from out of nowhere, and all of this extra stuff to consider on top of it. The small sample size you use to overvalue Shaw is the exact same sample size I used to project a regression. Over the final 15 games, the entire Canadians team overachieved because they were pushing hard to make the playoffs. This is a pace that cannot realistically be maintained over an 82 game season. Shaw had 14 points in the final 15 games playing 2-3 minutes more per game than his season average. There is absolutely zero chance Shaw sees 18-19 minutes a game in Chicago. Small sample size? 1/3rd of the year? You mean the same and similar sample size you use to pump your opinions and players? Did you not just say... How players are used is typically determined by results or the perceived results a player can provide by the coaching staff. Shaw will play second line minutes. Whatever that entails will be enough for him to do some damage. Here's another small sample size, in the 25 games prior to injury Shaw scored 22 points, was a +11, 20 PIM, 61 shots. Add it all together for 45 points over the last 52 games of the season, was a +22, 53 PIM & 118 shots. Not too shabby, in fact he was one of the best fantasy multi-cat producers available in the league. Was the entire Canadiens team overachieving because they were pushing hard to make the playoffs over these 52 games? The only part of the season Shaw saw struggles was at the start, other than that he was reliable and a picture of consistency and production all while playing with lesser players than are awaiting him in Chicago. Team statistics are not reflective of individual performance. The Kings have not traditionally been a high scoring team, but the team statistics are heavily skewed because the bottom 6 players contribute next to nothing in terms of offense. A disproportionate amount of points that are scored by the Kings come from the top 6. The top 6 as it stands now is tentatively Kopitar, Brown, Kovalchuk, Carter, Toffoli, and Iafallo/Prokhorkin. Looking at recent individual performances as opposed to team statistics would be a more honest depiction. Let me know if you spot the anomaly. Jeff Carter 2018-2019: 33pts/76gp 2017-2018: 22pts/27gp 2016-2017: 66pts/82gp 2015-2016: 62pts/77gp Ilya Kovalchuk 2018-2019: 34pts/64gp 2017-2018: 63pts/53gp 2016-2017: 78pts/60gp 2015-2016: 49pts/50gp Anze Kopitar
2018-2019: 60pts/81gp 2017-2018: 92pts/82gp 2016-2017: 52pts/76gp 2015-2016: 74pts/81gp Jonathan Quick 2018-2019: 3.38/.888 2017-2018: 2.40/.921 2016-2017: 2.26/.917 2015-2016: 2.22/.918
The Top 6 you suggest contributed 101 of 202 goals scored for the Kings. 50%, the other 50% contributed by the Bottom 6 (27%), Defense (11%) and Miscellaneous (12%). I would hardly call that 'a disproportionate amount of points' contributed by the Top 6. When you claim the Bottom 6 contributed 'next to nothing' in terms of offense...well, that's false. As far as Jeff Carter and his abilities, he was a 60-point Center 3-4 seasons ago. There were 40 60-point Centers last season making Jeff Carter a solid 5th Center on a Top 4 team or a decent to solid 4th Center on a Bottom 8 team...that's if he can get back to that level of production after a downed injury season, a comeback season that showed a slowing of his abilities and contributions (a 50% cut) as well as 3 years of age, doesn't look good. Can he regain that form? It's possible but why would you bank on it? Kovalchuk is nothing but a can’t-hack-it pantywaist who wears his mama’s bra, those numbers you use aren't NHL seasons and all it really illustrates is the difficulty of playing in the NHL and being successful. Again, his production dipped by about 50% playing in the best league in the world, he's even older, he didn't show capabilities of a significant nature and he plays for a shitshow team that cannot be trusted. There's no reason to use this player at this time. Jonathan Quick is a great HOF talent who's had an incredible career but as his longtime owner he's also been extremely frustrating in his later seasons. The attributes that made him so successful in his youth, his innovations at the position and athleticism, appear to be working against him with more age applied. The Kings are terrible, their defense is atrocious and the team cannot be trusted. He can't do it all, he needs a lot more help than he has. Trust is paramount when it comes to rostering goalies. For these reasons he is not worth rostering at this time. The only Kings worth owning at this time, other than prospects, are Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. Anyway, it's no skin off my back if you want to roster these players, I love it! Let's see how long they last on your team. This is not accurate. Not a single prospect picked around Corey Perry will play in the NHL this season. Therefore, they are worthless in the short-term. There is a season to play, and more than half of the league should be focused on realistically competing for the championship, something Corey Perry can possibly help achieve. Corey Perry can achieve helping a team to compete for the Championship? Really? If the best teams in the league wouldn't roster Corey Perry then he isn't going to help a potential Bottom 6 team compete for anything. This isn't a 1-year league, there are other considerations at play including drafting and signing prospects that will have a larger future impact on a team. Just because you're bad at finding significant prospects doesn't mean everybody will have the same trouble with it. It was a 9th Round pick and picking up prospects is not only commonplace but smart at that point in the draft, especially for a Bottom 6 team. I think I speak for everybody when I say this. If we have to hear you say Adam Boqvist's name one more time, someone is being sent to your house to punch you in the face. Hey! I said Gustafsson's name and 'Corey Perry' a lot too! Besides...I'm the one who does the punching.
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